Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf has declared a state of emergency in his country and suspended the constitution ahead of a Supreme Court ruling as to whether he was able to run for president last month while still remaining army chief. According to the BBC, soldiers have been positioned inside of state-run television and radio stations while independent stations have been shut down. Musharraf addressed the nation last night and said that he cannot let his country “commit suicide.”
This comes in a troubled time for Pakistan. Islamic fundamentalists from the northwest of Pakistan have been setting up a Taliban-like regime in the area and suicide bombings have killed hundreds recently. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto returned to the country last month in what was viewed as an precursor to setting up a joint presidency to restore civil order and fight the rising tide of Islamist insurgents.
So what does this bode for the United States and the war on terror?
The primary danger is that Pakistan will become a state ruled by Islamic fundamentalists. Musharraf has not been wholly effective at fighting terrorists in his country — especially in the lawless areas of the northwest — but has been one of our best allies in the region, especially when considering that he has to fight terrorism while maintaining an appearance of not being a US puppet. Osama bin Laden, if even still alive, has been rendered impotent, but there are plenty of mini-Osamas ready to take his place.
The most worrisome problem is that Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. The Ghauri-III missile has a claimed range of 3,500 km (2,100) miles — not quite far enough to strike Israel but far enough to hit deep into India. However, a Pakistan ruled by Islamic fundamentalists might be perssuaded to sell Iran several missiles, which would put Israel within striking distance. An Iran with actual nuclear missiles is not something that the US or Israel is likely to tolerate.
A Pakistan ruled by Islamic fundamentalists might be tempted to go to war against arch-enemy India. The two countries have been on the brink of war several times over the past decade. If such a thing were to happen, the US would likely step in on the side of India. The US military would be stretched thin to fight a war on several fronts.
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