A variety of news sources, many reliable and others not-so-reliable, indicate that Israel is on the verge of making a ground invasion into Gaza. I think it highly likely, but I do have some qualms:
- Analysts say that Israel needs 10,000 ground troops for an invasion. Yet Hamas claims that it has a militia of 13,000. While it is true that the Hamas troops are not nearly as well-trained or disciplined as the IDF, going against an army 30% larger than your own puts your troops at risk.
- Hamas will be fighting in its own territory. Rather than grouping their army into battalions, it is likely that Hamas troops will fight in their own neighborhoods, on terrain that they know and from buildings that they know. Israel will have air support and drones from the IAF but it is often difficult to tell the Hamas troops from the civilians until they act. By then, Israel is reduced to containing losses, not eliminating them altogether.
- Israel learned the hard way during the Lebanon war that, even with the best of information, one can sometimes understimate enemy strength and weaponry. Hezbollah was able to blow up Israeli tanks — something that the IDF never suspected.
- The Gazans have been fed a diet of anti-Semitism and hatred since birth. It is likely that the citizenry will take to the streets and fight the Israelis. The western media won’t report that Israelis killed people who were attacking them; they will report that Israelis are killing innocent civilians. World opinion will quickly turn against Israel.
- Israel has indicated that it might perform a quick ground invasion and then pull back. Doing so would only create a vacuum which radical elements would rapidly feel. Israel needs to dig out Hamas from its roots and totally destroy them. If necessary, Israel should set up an occupied government until a strong, friendly government can be established.
Here are some links:
- UK Times: Israel set to begin ground war against Hamas in Gaza
- DEBKAfile (caveat lector): Day 7 of Israeli operation: Suspense in Israel and Gaza for ground operation
- US News and World Report: Israel Ponders Ground Invasion of Gaza After Days of Airstrikes on Hamas Targets
- PBS Newshour: Israel Considers Ground Attack as Conflict Escalates
- Mania Bulletin: Israel continues pounding Gaza on Day 7 of blitz
- AFP: Israel aims to cripple Hamas, warn other foes: experts
- WorldTribune: Hamas has been hit hard, but its missile arsenal and command structure still intact
The Israeli assessment said Hamas sustained losses of about 1,500 missiles and rockets. The sources said this comprised no more than 15 percent of its estimated 10,000 surface-to-surface weapons, some of which were capable of striking targets 40 kilometers away. This was said to include the Iranian-origin Fajr-3, with a warhead of up to 70 kilograms.
During the war, Hamas gunners fired missiles and rockets into Beersheba, Israel’s fourth largest city and the largest in the south. This marked the first time that Hamas missiles reached Beersheba, with a population of 185,000 and about 30 kilometers from Israel’s nuclear facility at Dimona.
Many of the extended-range rockets were said to have been manufactured in China and delivered to Iran. Officials said the missiles that fell into Beersheba contained a warhead packed with shrapnel that could kill people up to 100 meters away.
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Kyrgystan News: White House gives Israel green light to invade Gaza










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